지금 순간에 한 가지 확실한 것은 바이든 행정부가 가시적인 성과를 통해 정책추진의 동력을 유지하고 기치로 내건 통합의 드라이브를 이어갈 수 있다면, 그리고 공화당이 트럼프의 유산을 넘어 전통적인 보수정당으로서 재편을 가져올 수 있다면 미국 사회는 다양성에 근거한 상호존중의 민주주의 재건으로 이어질 것이라는 점이다. 만일 그렇지 못하다면 2022년 중간선거 그리고 2024년 대선 역시 극심한 분열 속에서 당파성이 지배하는 또다른 큰 싸움이 벌어질 수밖에 없을 것이다.
As a result of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden of the Democratic Party will take office for the upcoming four years. Although U.S. foreign policy is expected to be more stable and predictable in the Biden administration, it is likely that its foreign policy will produce a modified U.S. global leadership, which has the features of both Trump’s America First foreign policy and the global leader of the liberal international order. Meanwhile, it is anticipated that U.S.-China relations could be more manageable in the Biden administration than it did in the Trump presidency even if U.S.-China strategic competition will persist. To maintain the strategic balance between U.S. and China, South Korea needs to pursue the ‘principled diplomacy,’ aimed at advancing its national interests based on the principles of ‘openness, transparency, and inclusiveness.’
The American government’s broad ranging efforts targeting an array of challenges to US interests posed by the policies and behavior of the Chinese government developed through close collaboration between the Trump administration and both Democrats and Republicans in the Congress. Emerging erratically in the first year of the Trump administration in late 2017, the US government’s hardening against China later demonstrated momentum in gaining greater support in the United States. It reached a high point during the heat of the 2020 presidential election campaign as the most important foreign policy issue in the campaign. South Korea has shown more angst over its vulnerability to negative fallout from the growing US-China rivalry than any other regional power. South Korea is very exposed and has few good options for dealing with the intensifying US-China rivalry. Prevailing assumptions are that a tough US policy toward China will continue in 2021 and strong Chinese retaliation will follow South Korean moves to align with the United States in the rivalry with China.
The Interdependencies of Security Conceptualization and Provision: National, Environmental, and Human(e) Security
Security is an increasingly contested concept in terms of referent object and the scope of issues covered in its conceptualization and provision. Traditional approaches have addressed the survival of states in a hostile operating environment focusing on questions of war and peace from the perspectives of national or systemic interstate security. Even if traditional approaches can be seen to have functioned reasonably well within the limited parameters of the old state-centric operating environment, they have fallen short in addressing new challenges to state and international security that do not originate from state actors. They have also proven to be very limited in their ability to embrace nontraditional security (NTS) perspectives relevant to the provision of human security for vulnerable individuals and groups, or biospheric security. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding and consideration of the intersections and interdependencies between different levels of security analysis and policy provision. This paper, therefore, advocates a holistic model of understanding of the mechanisms of the contemporary security operating environment, and comprehensive policy prescription to address old and new security challenges, traditional and NTS issues, and the spillover between them.
■ 2020 U.S. Presidential Election and Prospects for U.S. Policy toward East Asia ■ US Turn against China, 2020 Elections, Implications for South Korea ■ The Interdependencies of Security Conceptualization and Provision: National, Environmental, and Human(e) Security
이 책에 실린 9편의 글은 2020년 제주평화연구원에서 발간된 『JPI 정책포럼』 시리즈를 하나로 엮은 것입니다. 『JPI 정책포럼』은 국제무대에서 벌어지는 다양하고 시의성 있는 사건들을 학술적 필치로 정리하여 국가 정책에 이바지하고자 만든 전문가 보고서입니다. 이 보고서들을 엮은 이 책이 국제 사회에서 벌어지는 다양한 사건과 변화들을 독자들이 이해하고 통찰력을 키우는데 밑거름이 되기를 바랍니다.
올해도 제주평화연구원은 2020년 한해 동안 발간한 PeaceNet 원고들을 묶어 ‘동아시아 평화와 협력을 위한 대화’ 2020년 판을 내놓게 되었습니다. 이를 통해 그동안 각 분야의 전문가들이 보여준 통찰력과 지성을 여러분들과 공유하고자 합니다. 이 책이 독자들로 하여금 2020년의 국제정치 현실을 보다 깊이 이해하고 앞으로 국제정세가 어떻게 전개될 것인지를 가늠하는데 큰 도움이 되기를 바랍니다.
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