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[2017-2] Impact of Major Military Event in Inter-Korean Relationship with Time-Series Analysis By : YI Seong-Woo(JPI) DATE : 2018-04-10 오후 4:43:03
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It is necessary for a researcher to analyze the relationships between North and South Korea with objective data including information concerning actors, targets, time, and places since the interactions between two Koreas have happened on a daily basis. On top of that, it is unclear to delineate the cause and effect of the dynamics of inter-Korean relations.

Previous researches concerning North-South Korean relations have concentrated on specific events which are related to the policy implications rather than tracing down the chronologic trend. Lack of information is attributable as the biggest barrier for objective understanding of North Korean behavior. Therefore, this research employs the big data forms of North-South Korean interaction, GDELT. With the support of big data, I build the peace index between North-South Korean relations and used the time-series analyses in order to provide the policy suggestions.

According to the test results, North Korea tried to avoid strengthening mutual cooperaton in order to prevent any possibility of regime collapse. In a sense that, the hostile interdependence refers to the basic trend of inter-Korean relationship. In terms of degree in reciprocity between North and South Korea, South Korea’s cooperative reciprocity is stronger that North Korea’s cooperative reciprocity. When it comes to the presidential variance of reciprocity, Chun Doo-hwan, Kim Young-sam, and Roh Moo-hyun administrations were cooperative, while Roh Taw-woo, Kim Dae-jung, Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye administrations were conflictual to North Korea. Among North Korean leaders, Under the Kim Il-sung regime, North Korea’s response was more cooperative compare to South Korea response. On the other hand, South Korea’s response tunrned out to be more cooperative compare to North Korea’s response during the Kim Jong-il regime.

Contents
I. Introduction
II. Methodology: Concerning GDELT and Previous Researches
III. Descriptive Statistics: Impact of Major Military Event in Inter-Korean Relationship
IV. The Time-Series Analyses: Impact of Political Leaders in Inter-Korean Relationship
V. Conclusion​

 

Tag Inter-Korean relationship, conflict, peace, unification, exchange, cooperation, time-series +