Jeju Peace Institute

LEE Dong Sun(Associate Professor, Korea University)

Sino-American relations are entering an important period of transition. Currently, the United States sets the maintenance of its status as the world’s only superpower as its main strategic objective. The country is striving to maintain the supremacy of its national strength through the smart exploitation of its available resources and to bolster the pro-American alliance through military, economic, and ideological means. Meanwhile, China is striving to establish its status as an independent power and as the leader of Asia. Thus, China seeks to expand its influence by using its enhanced economic strength and to establish pro-China alliances.

China is continuing to build up its strength. If it reaches the status of a world power equal to that of the United States, it will expand the role of military strength in its efforts to exercise influence and strive to establish alliances that are friendly to it. That being the case, the United States will also make increasingly concerted efforts to stay ahead of China in terms of national strength and will likewise build friendly alliances. It is highly possible that the security strategies of the two powers will intertwine, and they will vie for global leadership in earnest. In Asia, the alliances led by each of the two powers will prevail and they too will vie with each other. Nevertheless, it is expected that extreme rivalry between the two can be avoided if the two powers build their respective spheres of influence apart from one another, i.e. one along the ocean and the other along the continent.

In the rivalry between the United States and China, South Korea is highly likely to be forced to choose one of the two as its ally. The least worse option open to South Korea would be to remain in the alliance led by the United States. In preparation for such an eventuality, the country needs to strive to maintain a more substantial relationship with the United States and maintain good relations with the other allies of the United States. The country should pursue this policy gradually and inconspicuously, and strive to lay China’s concerns to rest at the same time.