- 저자
- KIM Woosang (Professor, Department of Political Science, Yonsei University)
- 발간호
- 2016-08
[caption id="" align="alignright" width="150"] KIM WoosangProfessor, Department of Political Science, Yonsei University[/caption]
The international community is still reeling from the world financial crisis started in 2008, and the Brexit decision by the United Kingdom has dealt another shock to the global economy. The world also faces many security issues, such as the pandemic risks of MERS and Zika virus, climate change, the growing threat of terrorism, and refugee and human rights violations issues caused by civil warfare. International cooperation is vital to cope with these global problems.
In East Asia, the hegemonic rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying. Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks to build a ‘New Type of Great Power Relations,’ claiming its rise to a superpower is a fait accompli. In particular, China regards its territorial sovereignty over the South and East China Seas as part of its core national interests. China’s rise is perceived to be a threat to the national security of the Asian countries with economies that are increasingly interdependent with China. Cooperation among pivotal middle powers is essential for them to cope with the changes in the security and economic order of the region.
Particularly on the part of Korea, which is exposed to the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, extended deterrence provided by the U.S. is essential for its security. Korea must strengthen its alliance with the U.S. in addition to expanding its economic ties with China. Equipped with this foreign policy approach, Korea should carry out its diplomacy in a predictable manner vis-à-vis its neighboring great powers.
In addition to the ROK-U.S. alliance and the ROK-China strategic cooperative partnership, pivotal middle power diplomacy should be a core part of Korea’s grand strategy. The national security-first policy, based on the ROK-U.S. alliance, is the grand strategy for national security. The policy to prioritize economic interests is the grand strategy of economic diplomacy, and the ROK-China strategic cooperative partnership constitutes an integral part of the economic diplomacy of Korea. On top of this, pivotal middle power diplomacy should be the third grand strategy of Korea. To successfully pursue pivotal middle power diplomacy, Korea should push for the establishment of a new ‘apparatus for East Asia peace and cooperation,’ an advanced version of the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative (NAPCI).
Due to the North Korean nuclear threat, the four major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula carry greater weight for Korean diplomacy. Nevertheless, Korea should make efforts to expand the horizon of its diplomacy. Korea should pay keen attention to the diverse international and intra-regional security issues, apart from the diplomatic agendas related to the U.S., Japan, China, Russia and the North Korean nuclear issues. Korea should play a middle power leadership role in the East Asian region. By doing so, Korea can maintain its effectiveness as a peace-loving country in international society. Ultimately, Korea would become a driving force to win the support of the international community for peacefully resolving the conflict on the Korean peninsula.
As the seventh member of the “20-50 club,” referring to the countries with a population more than 50 million that maintain per capita gross national income of US$20,000, Korea is deemed a representative pivotal middle power in terms of global norms and diplomacy style. As a popular partner of other middle powers seeking to establish a multilateral organization jointly with the great powers as well as with middle and small powers, Korea is equipped with ‘hard power” and can exert substantial influence upon the regional order as well as soft power that plays an important role in human security. Korea should use its international status as a pivotal middle power.
All the countries Korea must work with on the Korean peninsula are great powers, except for North Korea. It has to deal with both China and the U.S. simultaneously. For forward-looking, creative and predictable diplomacy, Korea should actively pursue an approach of pivotal middle power diplomacy between the U.S. and China.
Pivotal middle power diplomacy is a tactic that pursues change in the great power-led regional order so that it might be favorable not only to the great powers but also to the middle and small powers in the region. It is diplomacy to establish regional order advantageous to more countries in the region by actively participating in the new ‘norm making’ processes in the great power-led order. Also, it is diplomacy that uses the multilateral system, including mini-lateralism, jointly with like-minded middle powers.
Asia has a few pivotal middle powers which have economic and security conditions similar to that of Korea. Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines are also pivotal middle powers that are economically interdependent with China and that are also growing with the rise of China. At the same time, as neighbors of China, they are likely to have territorial disputes with China or be intimidated by the rise of China. To deal with these potential threats, they would like to maintain their alliances or improve ties with the U.S.
Korea needs to lead on establishing a mini-lateral consultative body among like-minded pivotal middle powers to discuss and seek solutions to regional security and economic issues.
There are diverse multilateral organizations to discuss intra-regional security and economic issues. ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and East Asia Summit are in operation, and the Shangri-La Dialogue is held every year. From 2003, the Six-Party Talks to deal with the North Korean nuclear issue have been held. The Park Geun-hye government is hosting the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Forum to push for the NAPCI, as well as holding the Seoul Defense Dialogue since 2015. The multilateral organizations have been discussing trust-building measures and preventive diplomacy, but it is not clear whether they actually contribute to regional security. Every multilateral organization is joined by great powers. The Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Forum is joined by South Korea, North Korea, Mongolia, as well as the United States, China, and Russia. However, it is doubtful whether it can play a constructive role to strengthen regional security amid the acute hegemonic competition between the great powers.
The representative middle powers of the region – namely South Korea, Indonesia and Australia – need to establish a consultative body of middle powers that share common regional economic and security considerations. It is hard to hold in-depth discussions and implement plans of action about particular issues in a comprehensive multilateral body such as ARF. Even though its participants discuss relevant issues and pursue proper objectives, it is difficult to develop a feasible alternative through constructive discussions at NAPCI, given that the agendas are limited to the Northeast Asian region and the diversity of its member states.
The regional consultative body of middle powers should address issues beyond the scope of the Northeast Asian region, take the form of a mini-lateral organization, and be joined by middle powers only. It is more likely to be successful if the pivotal middle powers – which have in common security and economic environments amid the rivalry between the U.S. and China – form the organization by excluding these great powers. In addition, it would be more effectively operated under the mini-lateral system. NAPCI seeks to promote institutional cooperation in climate change, nuclear safety and security, and cyber security issues. The newly planned regional consultative body should be focused on strengthening institutional cooperation among the Asian countries on the diverse human security issues that NAPCI raises.
Korea, Australia, and Indonesia should play leading roles in creating a mini-lateral organization and coming up with measures to enhance institutional cooperation and develop agendas on sustainable development, natural disasters, sea lines of communication, human rights, humanitarian aid, terrorism, cyber security and peace-keeping operations. The mini-lateral consultative body should perform a facilitating role as well as a catalyst role so the agendas are adopted in larger multilateral organizations such as ARF, APEC and EAS.
There is currently one middle power consultative body in existence, MIKTA. The member countries – including Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey, and Australia – share no particular interests or objectives, except for their international status as pivotal middle powers. Therefore, some question its importance by pointing out that it remains on the level of a Coffee Club. The new East Asian peace consultative body should be developed into an influential regional coalition to address the substantial agendas of the countries in the region. To do so, it would be better not to discuss the issues related to certain countries. For instance, Korea should not put the North Korean nuclear issue on the agenda. The nuclear issue should be tabled at other multilateral organizations, and the new East Asian consultative body should improve the regional economic and security environment by addressing security issues involving the majority of Asian countries.
The mini-lateral consultative body should engage in diplomacy of persuasion to convince the U.S. and China that the regional members could cooperate with the U.S. on security issues and collaborate with China and Russia as well as the U.S. and Japan on economic issues. Members of the mini-lateral consultative body should be able to join the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and call in unison for freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas.
The mini-lateral consultative body should be a venue in which middle powers cooperate to seek forward-looking and creative diplomacy, lest the regional order be based only on the interests and capabilities of the great powers. I look forward to the days when the new regional middle power consultative body goes into operation on Jeju Island, the Island of World Peace, to establish an agenda for peace and prosperity in Asia.